One year after a Chinese rocket tumbled to earth, experts

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A Chinese rocket fell to earth last May. It could happen again soon. | Fortune © 2022 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/terms-of-use/”>Terms of Useu003c/a> and u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/privacy-policy/”>Privacy Policyu003c/a> | u003ca href=”/california-privacy-policy/#notice”>CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Noticeu003c/a> | u003ca href=”https://submit-irm.trustarc.com/services/validation/156c4fed-e974-444a-8352-55333c91c0e6″>Do Not Sell My Personal Informationu003c/a> | u003ca href=”http://preferences-mgr.trustarc.com/?pid=fortunemedia01&aid=fortunemedia01_pub&type=fortunemedia”>Ad Choices u003c/a>u003cbr />nFORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. 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It could happen again soon. | Fortune”]},{“name”:”script”,”config”:{“src”:”https://stats.wp.com/e-202230.js”,”defer”:true,”async”:true},”children”:[]},{“name”:”meta”,”config”:{“name”:”description”,”content”:”A Long March 5B rocket is set to blast off from China on July 24. 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debris”,”topics”:[{“term_id”:15571,”name”:”Aerospace”,”slug”:”aerospace”,”term_group”:0,”term_taxonomy_id”:109713,”taxonomy”:”post_tag”,”description”:””,”parent”:0,”count”:204,”filter”:”raw”},{“term_id”:1470,”name”:”China”,”slug”:”china”,”term_group”:0,”term_taxonomy_id”:46937,”taxonomy”:”post_tag”,”description”:””,”parent”:0,”count”:4820,”filter”:”raw”},{“term_id”:447850450,”name”:”China Aerospace Science & Technology”,”slug”:”china-aerospace-science-technology”,”term_group”:0,”term_taxonomy_id”:215629,”taxonomy”:”post_tag”,”description”:””,”parent”:0,”count”:2,”filter”:”raw”},{“term_id”:447838850,”name”:”space debris”,”slug”:”space-debris”,”term_group”:0,”term_taxonomy_id”:204029,”taxonomy”:”post_tag”,”description”:””,”parent”:0,”count”:7,”filter”:”raw”},{“term_id”:185668,”name”:”space station”,”slug”:”space-station”,”term_group”:0,”term_taxonomy_id”:114340,”taxonomy”:”post_tag”,”description”:””,”parent”:0,”count”:9,”filter”:”raw”}]},”children”:[{“name”:”gutenberg-content”,”config”:{},”children”:[{“name”:”html”,”config”:{“content”:”u003cdiv class=”plea-block with-bottom-border”>nu003cp>Sign up for the u003cem>u003ca href=”https://mynewsletters.fortune.com/fortune-features”>Fortune Featuresu003c/a>u003c/em> email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.u003c/p>nu003c/div>n u003cp>Just over a year after the Pentagon u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/05/06/china-long-march-rocket-debris-tracking/”>raised fearsu003c/a> about a possible 21-ton Chinese rocket stage possibly u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2021/05/06/china-rocket-crash-debris-back-to-earth-land/”>dropping debris over metro areasu003c/a>, concerns are rising about another Chinese launch.  u003c/p> u003cp>A Long March 5B rocket is set to blast off from China on July 24. That’s the same model as the rocket that tumbled to earth out of control last May. (The spacecraft eventually landed in the Indian Ocean.) And in 2020, a Long March 5B broke up, dropping debris on the west coast of Africa, damaging buildings, but not harming people.u003c/p> u003cp>(Debris from a separate Chinese rocket u003ca href=”https://fortune.com/2022/02/14/spacex-moon-crash-rocket-debris-china/”>plunged into the moonu003c/a> earlier this year.)u003c/p> u003cp>China is in the process of building its own version of the International Space Station, dubbed the Tiangong space station. These rockets, which measure 174 feet tall and weigh 1.87 million pounds, are often used to transport modules involved in the construction.u003c/p> u003cp>To be clear, the risk to human life is minimal. Most rockets that fall to earth burn up when they hit the atmosphere and those that don’t have the greatest odds of falling into the ocean, given that 71% of the earth’s surface is covered in water.u003c/p> u003cdiv id=”favorites_widget” class=”favorites_widget”>u003c/div>n u003cp>It’s still a risk, though. A report released in Nature Communications earlier this month put a u003ca href=”https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-022-01718-8″>10% chanceu003c/a> of human casualties from falling rocket parts in the next 10 years. The researchers noted that “the latitudes of Jakarta (Indonesia), … Mexico City, Bogotá and Lagos are at least three times as likely as those of Washington, DC, New York, Beijing and Moscow to have a rocket body reenter over them.”u003c/p> u003cp>Two additional modules are expected to launch from China in October and at some point in 2023.u003c/p> 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