Stocks stumble to start September as crucial jobs report lies ahead

US stocks fell on Tuesday to kick off a historically tough month for markets, as attention turned to a week of labor data highlighted by a crucial monthly jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid roughly 0.5% on the heels of a winning session booked before the Labor Day break. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) pulled back 0.8%.

Stocks are retreating from near highs as Wall Street hunkers down after a roller-coaster August, with the prospect of a potentially stormy September ahead. Investors are assessing the risk of data shocks or presidential race surprises in a month that’s typically terrible for traders.

Top of mind is the August jobs report, due out on Friday, which could influence how deeply the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its meeting this month. With inflation now cooling, policymakers are on alert for the labor market to fall into place.

For investors, the focus is on whether the signs of slowing in the July jobs report were overstated — or an early warning of a broader slowdown. Any hints of stress should put pressure on the Fed to make a bigger reduction in rates. As of early Tuesday, traders were pricing in 31% odds of a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 basis points, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Reports on US manufacturing activity in August will provide an earlier window into the strength of the economy later Tuesday, a potential catalyst for rate-cut recalibrations.

Meanwhile, investors are keeping a watchful eye for headwinds from the US presidential race, as election day draws closer. US Steel (X) shares sank in morning trading after Democratic nominee Kamala Harris said the company should stay American-owned and run in the face of a proposed takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel.