Barry Bannister is unimpressed by the stock market’s run to record highs. The broad market index has soared to record levels to start the fourth quarter, as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle. Over the past month, the S & P 500 has climbed 3.2% to break above 5,800 for the first time. It closed at 5,815.26 on Tuesday, despite a decline. But Stifel Financial’s chief equity strategist is sticking to his bearish stance. “Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S & P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot,” he wrote in a note to clients. “Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside [to 6,400], but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S & P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak).” “S & P 500 over-valuation has been supported by (and fully reflects) the Fed likely cutting the real funds rate,” he added. “However, as the Fed cuts there is a cost to ‘so much winning,’ as that undermines the 2% inflation target.” Bannister has had success calling market trends. In March 19, 2020, he correctly said stocks were near the Covid-19 lows . In early 2018, he called a sharp correction due to a spike in Treasury yields . However, not all of his predictions haven’t panned out. This summer, he said he expected the S & P 500 to fall to 5,000 by the fourth quarter. Instead, the benchmark has scaled new heights. While not included in CNBC Pro’s Market Strategist Survey , that forecast would mark Stifel as the second lowest among those surveyed. Only JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has a lower year-end target at 4,200. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Citi upgraded Cisco Systems to buy from neutral. “While AI is currently a small piece of the biz (~2% of revs), we see the potential for a stronger contribution,” Citi wrote. “With more AI coming, we are incrementally more constructive on the group and expect continued investor rotation out of semis/hardware into networking equipment to benefit group valuation.”
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