S&P 500 Hits Record High as AI Powers Tech Rally: Markets Wrap

Hackett also noted hat while the bar for earnings is high, the market is showing impressive resilience.

“A breakout to a fresh record high would energize the bulls, as earnings seasons have been choppy in recent quarters,” he concluded.

After the S&P 500 soared 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, lofty valuations brought some discussion on whether the benchmark will be able to achieve such a performance again this year.

Back-to-back annual gains of over 20% for the S&P 500 do not necessarily make US equities due for a pullback, as history shows the market has typically continued to deliver solid, albeit more muted, returns in the following year,” said Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments. “Further, the current rally is far from the longest without a correction.”

Schulze also noted that earnings growth has largely been concentrated amongst a small group of stocks in recent years. This is expected to shift in 2025 with a broadening of earnings participation, which should lead to improved relative performance for small/mid cap and value laggards.

“While we continue to watch the new administration’s next moves closely, investor should not lose sight of the fundamentals that remain favorable for US equities,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Without taking any single-name views, we continue to like technology, utilities, and financials, and see value in utilizing structured strategies to navigate near-term volatility.”

The stock market’s “January effect” is taking shape so far, with stocks performing strongly throughout the month, according to to John Creekmur at Creekmur Wealth Advisors.

“Investors are now more focused on earnings and hopes for tax cuts and deregulation from the new Trump administration, and less so about worries of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts this year,” he noted.

The Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled since the start of 2023, adding $14 trillion in value in the process. Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross is prepared for that rally to continue, shrugging off fears of a familiar nemesis: bond yields.

Treasury rates jumped to multi-month highs last week as investors parsed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut. The yield on the US 10-year has since pulled back after hitting a relative strength reading that usually signals a retreat. Pair that with positive technical signals and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Index both appear poised to hit fresh all-time highs in the first quarter, according to Ross.

“At the end of the day technology remains in an outstanding position to continue to lead this market higher,” Ross said.

Corporate Highlights:

• Netflix Inc. shares soared after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.

• Salesforce Inc. Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said there will be “thousands” of deals for its new Agentforce AI product in the current fiscal quarter.

• Alphabet Inc.’s Google won a UK court ruling to block Russian media firms from seizing the tech giant’s global assets to recover Russian court-imposed fines that have now accrued interest equal to many times more than the world’s economy combined.

• United Airlines Holdings Inc. expects a solidly profitable first quarter as the carrier capitalizes on strong demand during the winter months, a surprising shift from a normally sluggish travel period.

• Procter & Gamble Co. organic sales surpassed estimates on higher volume, a change from earlier quarters where most of the company’s growth came from price hikes.

• Johnson & Johnson said a strong dollar will cut into 2025 revenue and profit, pushing its forecast below analysts’ expectations and driving its shares lower.

• Abbott Laboratories is forecasting lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings but full-year profit in line with Wall Street estimates as the health care company points to strong demand for its medical devices as a growth driver this year.

• Ally Financial Inc. fourth-quarter earnings surged as its net interest margin beat analysts’ estimates and expenses and provisions for bad debt declined.

Key events this week:

• Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday

• US jobless claims, Thursday

• Bank of Japan policy meeting, Friday

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday

• US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, existing home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 12:51 p.m. New York time

• The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%

• The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%

• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%

• The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

• The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0416

• The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2320

• The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 156.61 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $104,426.78

• Ether fell 1.5% to $3,283.7

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.61%

• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.53%

• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.63%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $75.93 a barrel

• Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,757.68 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Robert Brand and Aya Wagatsuma.

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